Introduction

Based on the current outlook and scenarios for economic development in the energy crisis this article will discuss the issue of the energy crisis and its impacts on the environment and economy. It will also provide examples of how certain countries are dealing with the issue, and suggest possible solutions. An energy crisis is a situation where the demand for energy exceeds the supply of energy available, resulting in a shortage of energy and an increase in straight noticeable energy prices. Besides the disputes with Russia, there are several possible causes for an energy crisis, including:

• Depletion of fossil fuel resources: The world’s reliance on fossil fuels, such as oil, coal, and natural gas, has led to a depletion of these resources and an increase in the cost of extracting them.
• Political instability: Conflicts or instability in countries that produce or export oil can disrupt the global supply of gas and oil and lead to an energy crisis. We can observe it was caused by the Ukraine war. A shortage of Russian gas and the European embargo developed. Floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) gas terminals are currently trying to replace Russian gas in the short term until green hydrogen imports and land terminals can replace them (Widmann, 2022).
• Natural disasters: Natural disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes like in Syria and Turkey currently can damage oil rigs, refineries, and other energy infrastructure, causing a disruption in the supply of energy.
• Lack of investment in renewable energy: A lack of investment in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, can lead to a reliance on fossil fuels and increase the likelihood of an energy crisis.
• Climate change: Climate change can lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, which can cause damage to energy infrastructure and disrupt the supply of energy.

An energy crisis can have severe consequences such as economic recession, job losses, and social unrest. To avoid further energy crises, it is necessary to invest in renewable energy sources, improve energy efficiency, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels (ChatGPT, 2023). See also the article: Fiscal policy – economic cycle and developments in the energy crisis – MoreThanDigital

Cut Energy Costs and Path to Sustainability: The most important task of our time is to create a sustainable energy supply. In 2022, political events have made the issue even more urgent – in addition to the well-known factors of climate change and theft of the earth (Thelen, 2023). Many electricity utilities do not have their costs under control. In 2022, the shortfalls of Swiss electricity suppliers as an example already amounted to 1.3 billion Swiss francs (Fischer, 2022). Shortfalls increase the risk of more sudden tariff increases in the future.

1. Global Risk Assessment – Risks and Consequences

Food, fuel, and cost crises exacerbate societal vulnerability while declining investments in human development erode future resilience. Compounding crises are widening their impact across societies, hitting the livelihoods of a far broader section of the population, and destabilizing more economies in the world, than traditionally vulnerable communities and fragile states. Building on the most severe risks expected to impact in 2023 and 2024 – including the “Energy supply crisis”, “Rising inflation” and “Food supply crisis” – a global Cost-of-living crisis is already being felt. Economic impacts have been cushioned by countries that can afford it, but many lower-income countries are facing multiple crises: debt, climate change, and food security. Continued supply-side pressures risk turning the current cost-of-living crisis into a wider humanitarian crisis within the next two years in many import-dependent markets (Zahidi, 2023). In that context of sustainability, companies must take a more detailed look at the risks and side effects of ignoring environmental responsibility. Above all, the issues of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming are the most urgent challenges.

1.1 The most important Business Risks Next Years

Despite the existing business risks, which not only affect the long-term prospects of companies in all sectors, sustainability is implemented differently or only slowly. Some companies have not yet prioritized corporate sustainability enough. Politicians have recognized that voluntarism does not work with regard to the energy transition and environmental protection and will have to tighten the laws in the future. In Switzerland, as an example, the Ordinance on Climate-related Financial Disclosures will come into force on 1st January 2024. It is based on the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, TCFD (Niklowitz, 2022). This means that companies are increasingly being held accountable. They can position themselves better with sustainable corporate governance and maintain their corporate identity and branding. New regulatory green deal efforts and EU initiatives are also bringing the circular economy more into focus. New reporting similar to financial reporting includes due diligence and accountability for environmental, carbon, and social impacts (Niklowitz, 2022). There is a requirement to disclose climate-related risks and opportunities. The increasing scarcity of resources has also been brought to the attention of companies and politicians, in particular by the supply bottlenecks during the Corona years.

The following table from the World Economic Forum WEF shows an assessment of the likely risks with weighted severity in the next two to ten years.

Climate change, natural resources as scarce commodities, and weather changes are considered major risks not only for (re)insurers. Anyway, the Allianz Risk Barometer 2023 offers an additional assessment. The following figures represent how often a risk was selected as a percentage of all survey responses from 2’712 respondents in 94 countries and 23 industry sectors. Unsurprisingly, given the current ‘permacrisis’, business interruption and supply chain disruption rank as the second top risk in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer (34%). It is second only to cyber incidents (by just a few votes, also on 34%), whose top position reflects the importance of today’s digital economy, the evolving threat from ransomware and extortion, as well as geopolitical rivalries and conflicts increasingly being played out in cyberspace. Cyber risk and business interruption (BI) are closely linked, with cyber also ranking as the cause of related companies’ fear most. The energy crisis is ranked fourth with 22%. Climate change and related natural disasters are also cited as high risks.

The figures are based on the average of all countries. In Germany, as a good export economy example, the energy crisis ranks third at 33 %. Climate change and global warming threaten companies in a number of different ways. First and foremost, higher property damage and business interruption risks as a result of natural hazards and extreme weather events such as floods, storms, thunderstorms, or droughts. Then there is the threat of legal and liability risks due to the comprehensive regulatory framework around the world, increasing disclosure requirements, and the threat of greenwashing accusations or climate lawsuits (Townsend & Müller, 2023).

1.2 Company Actions to mitigate the direct Impact of Climate Change

The prioritization of the countermeasures to the climate and natural environment risk factors is shown as follows.

The reduction of emissions with corresponding business models has the highest priority with 52 %. A promising game-changing model for companies and commuters could be the sharing mobility “Mobility-as-a-Service” within a net zero ecosystem. With regard to the regulatory changes to support the development, there are also new business perspectives. Swiss and European providers like Urban Connect AG make it their business to support companies on their way to Net Zero. For this purpose, there is a carbon-neutral platform, apps, and analysis tools within the sharing ecosystem of low-emission and shared vehicles. The vehicles range from e-bikes to e-scooters and e-cargo bikes to e-cars – with all of them bookable via one app. The platform helps companies build an optimized, climate-neutral, cost-effective mobility mix for their employees. All consumption figures can be viewed and controlled transparently.

2. Climate Change shows its Impact

Low water levels in lakes, such as Lake Constance in the border triangle of Austria, Switzerland, and Germany, and in rivers due to less snowmelt water in the summer let us feel the effects. Less permafrost in the Alpine world triggers more frequent rockfalls and irrevocably changes the Alpine landscape. Some weather phenomena, such as droughts and destroying storms, are occurring more frequently worldwide. European ski tourism is currently complaining about too little snow as well as high investment and energy costs due to mechanical snowmaking. The water consumption of snow cannons, mostly fed by mountain lakes, is considerable.

Future global challenges: sustainably addressing global humanitarian and energy needs. The exorbitant energy costs have driven commodity prices up and made the delivery of humanitarian aid more expensive. This is having dire consequences for food security globally, with 45 million people in 37 countries risking starvation in 2023, according to UN estimates. In short: humanitarian needs are at a historic high. With the effects of climate change, including the new conflicts it may cause in the competition for shrinking resources, they are likely to keep increasing (Lenarčič, 2023). The increasing hunger for energy, the liberalization of the electricity market – and the fact that there are no new nuclear power plants, are forcing many EU and other countries. This affects especially the import-dependent Switzerland, which is excluded from the EU market, to act. Because of the many e-cars, e-bikes, and heat pumps, demand is increasing. Experts expect 20 percent more consumption from e-mobility and 75 percent more because of heating by 2023 (Valda, 2022). On the other hand, solar, wind, and storage systems are growing too slowly. Denmark for example plays aggressively on the sustainability front. The target of this country is to cut emissions by 70 percent in 10 years (IMD, 2022). How should the world confront its most pressing environmental challenges? An answer lies in sustainability – inclusive growth. Energy efficiency is reducing emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in some countries, but worldwide emissions continue to rise, accelerating climate change and its attendant physical risks. The world is therefore on track to exhaust its “carbon budget,” the number of greenhouse gases it can emit without triggering dangerous levels of warming, by 2030. The current decade will determine whether we opt for sustainable, inclusive growth or for dangerous warming and large segments of society left behind (Smit, et al., 2022).

3. Sustainable Trade and Demand Management – set Incentives

By 2032, all analog electricity meters will be replaced by digital electricity meters and smart meters in Germany. Objective: digitalization, better control of peak demand, energy storage, and control of alternative energy sources as well as electricity savings. For the consumer, this means costs for the first time – but it can help protect the climate to some extent. What about data protection? Every device that sends or receives data always offers hackers a target. For example, they could use the data to find out the habits of the residents. Security gaps can probably never be completely ruled out – in order to ensure a high level of security, smart meters must meet high requirements (Kemper, 2022).

The current decade will determine sustainable measurements. On sustainability, for example, as the unit costs of low-emissions alternatives (such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and heat pumps) come down, they will attract more private capital, reducing the total investment needed. And when innovation makes low-emissions technology cheaper, it can help close the sustainability gap further by shifting consumers’ preferences toward that technology. To overcome: Take the case of a company that emits large quantities of CO₂. If reducing those emissions would put it at a disadvantage with its competitors, it has little financial reason to proceed (Smit, et al., 2022).

4. Fossil Fuels are outdated – Change to alternative Sources

There are global calls for innovative solutions to global pressing issues as outlined by the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The areas of sustainability include the forestry industry, production, and development of alternative energy sources, waste, and recycling, and protection of the environment as well as the wildlife and oceans. One important aim is to reduce dependence on fossil energy sources and gas and oil-exporting countries. The challenges to sustainability are large and urgent. On the sustainability side, energy efficiency is reducing emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in some countries, but worldwide emissions continue to rise, accelerating climate change and its attendant physical risks with destroying weather phenomena. The world is therefore on track to exhaust its “carbon budget,” the number of greenhouse gases it can emit without triggering dangerous levels of warming, by 2030 (Smit, et al., 2022).

Germany, as a European economic driver of alternative energy sources, the share of solar energy is increasing by 30 to 40 percent annually at the moment (destatis, 2022). In 2022, 10.9 percent of the electricity generated was produced by photovoltaics. The use of photovoltaic systems has become increasingly important over the years for many countries. The share of the sun as a regenerative energy source has increased continuously since 2003 (statista, 2022). The share of solar power production in Switzerland’s electricity consumption was 4.89 % in 2021 (2020: 4.7 %) and is now just under 6 %. Increased growth compared to the previous year was observed in all size categories and application areas. The increases are particularly high for systems on industrial and commercial buildings (+53%), for single-family homes (+60%), and for large systems over 1000 kilowatts (Bundesamt für Energie, BFE, 2022). Therefore, the solar industry is currently experiencing exponential growth in sales with orders quadrupling in some countries. Companies are working hard to increase production capacity and reduce dependence on China. Currently, 80 percent of the world’s solar energy production capacity is in China. The big question is therefore whether the boom in the industry will not bring new dependencies with it – especially if China were to restrict its exports in a conceivable trade war (ntv.de, jki, cls, 2023).

Storage Solution: Thermal energy storage has the potential to greatly contribute to decarbonizing global heat and power while helping to ensure the energy system operates affordably, reliably, and efficiently. Thermal energy storage (TES) comprises a set of technologies that could both accelerate the decarbonization of heat and help establish a stable, reliable electricity system predominantly powered by renewables. TES can be charged with renewable electricity or waste heat to discharge firm, clean heat to users such as industrial plants or buildings. TES and long-duration energy storage (LDES) can provide “clean” flexibility by storing excess energy (electrical or thermal) at times of peak supply and releasing it as heat when demand requires. It shows that when heat cannot be directly generated with renewable electricity, TES can be a more cost-efficient and low-carbon way of fulfilling heat demand than delivering a steady electricity supply with stored renewable power. Some TES technologies are already commercially available and can be easy to deploy and integrate with existing systems – for example, medium-pressure steam as applied in the chemicals and food and beverage industries. Innovative technologies that can help address higher-temperature needs well above 1,000ºC are also on the way. The following exhibit in the next chapter illustrates one example and compares the levelized cost of delivering medium-pressure steam using TES to other fossil and clean technologies.

4.1 Major Energy Consumer

Clean steam from electricity and thermal energy storage can be cheaper than conventional gas boilers and other low-carbon solutions (Linder, et al. 2022).

The biggest energy consumers on the road to net-zero emissions are heating and cooling with approximately 50 percent of global final energy consumption.

Another important topic is the energy consumption of artificial intelligence AI, metaverse and cloud data storage/ computing. Training just one AI model could generate 284 tons of carbon dioxide, which is more than five times the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by a car in its lifetime. Cloud computing, which is necessary for virtual reality, blockchain processes, online gaming, and high-resolution image processing, could also significantly raise carbon emissions (Liang & Jianya, 2023).

Metaverse: There is no need to enter buildings virtually in 3D. Nevertheless, this consumes a lot of energy when extrapolated. The metaverse is one of today’s hottest technological and socioeconomic topics. Lots of companies are already working on creating services for this new digital world. However, the applications of metaverse-related technologies like AI, virtual reality (VR), 3D animation, blockchain, and many others, are still human-centric: people make decisions that prioritize humanity over the environment (Liang & Jianya, 2023). Metaverse is energy-intensive, and the higher the demand for it and its related technologies, the more power we use. It is the responsibility of the technology industry and researchers to learn from the environmental impact of the metaverse.
Possible solution: Mathematics can be used in various ways to reduce the energy consumption of the metaverse. For instance, the method from Nanyang Technology University researchers in Singapore focuses on selective scanning to create virtual environments. Instead of transmitting the entire captured image, the camera first automatically selects the objects of interest and transmits only these objects to metaverse service providers (Liang & Jianya, 2023). Selective infrared laser scanning by innovative calculation would require less calculation and energy. Faster computing means fewer carbon emissions.

4.2 Net-zero Transition

Net zero refers to the balance between the number of greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere (United Nations, 2022). It is the internationally agreed-upon goal for mitigating global warming: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has determined the need for net-zero CO₂ by 2050 to avoid catastrophic climate change (Enselme, et al., 2023). The net-zero transition is predicated on substituting electricity for fossil fuels. Therefore, a key enabling step is to decarbonize the electric sector. The necessary basis for this change has got priorities as follows in the example of the import industry:

1. Designing and deploying a capital-efficient and affordable system.
2. Strengthening supply chains to provide stable access to raw materials, components, and skilled labor.
3. Securing access to adequate land with high load factors for the deployment of renewables while considering the needs of local communities.
4. Reforming transmission development to include proactive planning, fast-track permitting, and systematic consideration of transmission alternatives.
5. Creating market mechanisms for expanding firm capacity to ensure reliable and adequate clean-energy supply.
6. Accelerating technological innovation to ensure timely deployment of new clean technologies.

Given the scale of future green investments, the efficient use of capital will be critical (Brown, et. al, 2023). The global regulatory framework on this is “outdated”. Therefore, it is important to empower and educate clients to deal with rising interest rates and responsible investments. There is a need to find valuation and macroeconomic indicators to underpin per capita carbon emissions as a measure of environmental responsibility. This should be an indicator that quantifies how many natural resources it takes to support the economy. The Sustainable Trade Index STI tells us how fast we consume resources and produce waste, essentially adding a fresh dimension to measuring the human impact on the environment beyond carbon output (Yap, 2022). The following assessment factors and pillars are included in the STI.

The Hinrich Foundation as a practical example rated 30 countries in 2022. New Zealand achieved top scores in all the factors mentioned. In addition to environmental protection, the STI includes other assessment factors such as educational skills, social aspects, and political stability. In Europe, only United Kingdom was evaluated and reached 2nd place (Yap, 2022). The drive to decarbonize is at an inflection point for all countries. Critical actions could accelerate the transition while enhancing energy affordability and supporting inclusive economic growth (Brown, et al., 2023).

4.3 Change of Basic Attitude – Nuclear Power Phase-out

For the industry in some countries, the nuclear phase-out estimated for the next two years and thus for the prosperity of the German-speaking countries is extremely risky. As long as the energy is there, only fewer think about how to replace it. Germany is an example: almost half of the electricity demand is covered by coal-fired power plants, the most climate-damaging power plants. Replacing nuclear power is devastating for climate goals. In addition, 20 percent comes from other fossil sources such as natural gas, which is currently in short supply. In addition to heating, natural gas is urgently needed for industrial production and as a raw material in the chemical industry (Malcher, 2022). Switzerland: In 2025, Beznau, Switzerland’s first commercial nuclear power plant and the oldest operating nuclear power plant in the world, is to be shut down. With an increasing demand for electricity, Switzerland would therefore have to buy more dirty electricity from abroad. Physically, Switzerland is more integrated into the European interconnected grid than any other country. There are 41 border lines connecting Switzerland with our neighboring countries. The Swiss reservoirs are large energy storage facilities for the whole of Europe. According to the Swiss grid operator Swissgrid, Swiss grid stability only exists in a European context. From 2025 onwards, electricity shortages may occur in extreme cases, as 70 percent is earmarked exclusively for the EU market. Interruptions are to be expected. At the moment, Italy is investing enormously in power lines with other countries. For example, between Italy and Austria, the underground cabling is in further construction. With the implementation of these projects, Switzerland’s importance as an electricity transit country is likely to decrease significantly (Läubli & Häne, 2021). Solar and wind energy will replace fossil power plants in the coming decades. Wind and solar plants cannot be controlled in the same way as conventional power plants because their output fluctuates greatly depending on the weather. According to Swissgrid, the number of faults has already risen sharply in recent years. Thanks to hydropower, the grid can be kept in balance (Läubli & Häne, 2021).

The World Economic Forum WEF has launched an Industry Net Zero Accelerator Initiative, which highlights the advantages for companies. Transition to net zero offering the following key opportunities:

1. Increasing access to finance through innovation grants and fiscal incentives targeted at encouraging investment in the green economy.
2. Improving process efficiency and productivity that could lead to cutting both carbon emissions and operational costs.
3. Maximizing innovation to develop and manufacture new products and services that target changing consumer preference for greener products and help to generate new revenue and access new markets.
4. Developing new supply chains to sustain new products and markets and access new revenue (e.g. biorefining; carbon capture, utilization, and storage; hydrogen supply chain; circular steel supply chain).
5. Attracting talented new workers to support the industry’s green transformation (Enselme, et al., 2023).

4.4 Net Positive Fusion

We urgently need to switch from coal and gas to renewable energy sources. Since this requires large storage capacities and a stable, intelligent grid, a complete nuclear phase-out without a timely alternative is less advisable (Thelen, 2023). It will take years to build up the overall necessary storage capacities, especially if the implementation can take decades, due to slow official and legal approval processes of the construction projects. Scientific development: research is being conducted on nuclear fusion as a sustainable and safe energy source. To trigger the reaction, hydrogen atoms must be heated to several million degrees Celsius in a very short time. In December 2022, for the first time, more energy was generated in a reactor in California during nuclear fusion than was needed to start the reaction. This is referred to as net positive fusion (Thelen, 2023). This energy generation could be a solution for the increasing energy demand in the future.

Conclusion

Sustainability strategies help to maintain a competitive edge. Energy policy must recognize the meteorological realities. Our society needs secure electricity for clinics and factories even at times with less sun and wind. A wind turbine can be built in Germany as an example after 7-10 years. Power lines also take up to 10 years to start construction (Widmann, 2022). The approval procedures must become faster. The German construction of the Wilhelmshafen liquefied natural gas LNG terminal, which has already been completed, shows that things can be done differently. The phase-out of coal and gas consumption requires the expansion of storage capacities and the development of a smart grid with digital meters and smart meters.

CO₂-negative houses need to be promoted with energy-efficient building materials and techniques. New semiconductor technologies enable better energy efficiency of chips. Sustainable materials and environmentally friendly energy generation have become more important for corporate image, especially in some industries like the textile industry. The initial investment costs for companies in sustainable energy supply and control of consumption with energy alternatives – such as better storage, better insulation, and efficient mobility, already enable cost savings and a better Return on Investment (ROI) in the medium term. Especially if the energy market continues to follow the current development and price trend. Also, hospitals and other health care providers invest in clean energy, construction and insolate improvement, sustainability, waste management, and sustainable medical equipment and instruments. Sustainable and value-oriented health care is moving more into focus. New recycling techniques of plastic components need to be developed for the high demand also of the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry as well as other convenience products and the petrochemical industry. At the end of the day, tackling climate change depends on us improving our attitude toward nature, towards ourselves, and towards our society to solve this problem. The real risk to our better future is our indifference and lack of caring. Especially since we insist on dealing with each of the issues separately, and only listen to egoistic appeals. No one is really concerned with the collective (Nakash, 2023).

Corporate CO₂ emissions can be measured well on the basis of energy consumption and mobility behavior and used as a basis for goal setting and measures. In order to achieve the climate targets, faster approval procedures and subsidies from the state are necessary. Climate mitigation and climate adaptation efforts are set up for a risky trade-off, while nature collapses. Climate and environmental risks are the core focus of global risks perceptions over the next decade – and are the risks for which we are seen to be the least prepared. The lack of deep, concerted progress on climate action targets has exposed the divergence between what is scientifically necessary to achieve net zero and what is politically feasible. Growing demands on public-and private-sector resources from other crises will reduce the speed and scale of mitigation efforts over the next two years, alongside insufficient progress towards the adaptation support required for those communities and countries increasingly affected by the impacts of climate change. As current crises divert resources from risks arising over the medium to longer term, the burdens on natural ecosystems will grow given their still undervalued role in the global economy and overall planetary health. Nature loss and climate change are intrinsically interlinked – a failure in one sphere will cascade into the other. Without significant policy change or investment, the interplay between climate change impacts, biodiversity loss, food security, and natural resource consumption will accelerate ecosystem collapse, threaten food supplies and livelihoods in climate-vulnerable economies, amplify the impacts of natural disasters, and limit further progress on climate mitigation (Zahidi, 2023).

Promising approaches to success are:

1. Not wasting resources is to move away from a throwaway society. Products should last longer and be consistently recycled. Exploiting the residual value of products – from manufacture to consumers, and then back to manufacturing – or collection of products between distinct business entities (Enselme, et al., 2023).
2. Energy-intensive production processes must be optimized.
3. Insulation of existing buildings and new buildings.
4. Thermal energy storage (TES) could accelerate the global pace of emissions reduction and bring net-zero closer.
5. Providing the capability or services to satisfy user needs without needing to own physical products and vehicles with Mobility-as-a-Service models.
6. Alternative energy sources enable price volatility to be stabilized.
7. Innovative calculation methods can reduce the energy consumption of metaverse technologies (Jianya & Liang, 2023).
8. Strengthening supply chains to provide stable access to raw materials, components, and skilled labor.

A more orderly transition faces five potential sources of disruption: volume shortages; price volatility; political, social, or regulatory uncertainty; long lead times; and unreliable quality. Each reflects essential priorities that energy-sector executives would need to evaluate and master on the road to decarbonization. Business leaders and policymakers could mitigate some of the impacts of these disruptions by securing the availability of raw materials, scaling up resilient manufacturing of key technologies, and developing and acquiring talent in a tight labor market (Brown, et al., 2023).

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Dr. Dirk Sven Kircher, M.Sc., B.A., R.N.

Health Economist and Nursing Expert with over 25 years of operational healthcare experience. Health Economist, Emergency Nursing Specialist and Paramedic. I never lost sight of my ultimate goal => best possible care and treatment quality. My motto in the sense of a salutogenic: prevention is better than aftercare. Spectrum of activity: excellence in healthcare, digitization, telemedicine and integrated care. A high quality of the digitized care processes makes it possible to avoid redundant processes and thus save costs. Digitization is an important aspect of relieving nursing staff of administrative tasks for person-to-person work. My experience with patients and further academic qualifications in the healthcare industry allow me to generate practical and therefore viable solutions. As a multicultural city child and German-Swiss dual citizen, I remain cosmopolitan. I don’t forget that we work with people for people.