Futurism Tools and Future Studies Techniques explained from a Futurist

Let’s start with the most important point of this article: Futurism isn’t about predicting the future; it’s about exploring possibilities. It’s a way of thinking that helps us imagine different futures and prepare for them. The field has evolved over time from simply trying to predict trends to understanding the vast web of possibilities that the future holds.

At its core, futurism is about recognising that the future is not a distant, fixed point. Instead, it’s an ever-changing landscape full of uncertainty and opportunity (or risk). Whether it’s the rapid advancement of technology, changes in global politics, or the ever-evolving social norms and shifts in our demographics, disruptive ideas, new innovations – The future is a jigsaw puzzle that’s constantly being rearranged, sometimes quickly and sometimes slowly.

The relevance of futurism today is greater than ever. In a world where change is the only constant, understanding and anticipating future trends is critical. From businesses trying to stay ahead of the market, to governments planning for the welfare of their citizens, to individuals preparing for their careers, futurism offers tools and perspectives to help us navigate the uncharted waters of the future.

Understanding the Basic Concepts of Future Studies

There are some key ideas that are important to understand before diving into futures studies:

1. The art of possibility: Futures studies isn’t about pinpointing a specific future, it’s about exploring a range of possible futures. It’s like looking at a weather forecast. We don’t get one specific prediction, but a range of possibilities based on different models. And the further we look into the future, the harder it gets.
2. Beyond predictions: Predictions are part of futurism, but the field goes beyond that. It’s not just about saying what will happen; it’s about understanding how different choices can lead to different futures. It’s about being prepared for different ‘what ifs’ and understanding each variable and its implications.
3. Embrace uncertainty and complexity: The future is complex and many factors can change its course. Because of this complexity, futures studies often involve scenarios that take into account a range of factors, from technological breakthroughs to social change.

For many people, coming into this world and understanding these concepts for the first time is like getting a new pair of glasses. Suddenly you see the future in a different light and you begin to think in a different way. It becomes a space of exploration, a realm of multiple paths rather than a single path leading to a single destiny. This mindset shift is the first step in navigating the fascinating world of futurism and futures studies. However, this article is not about the principles of futurism, but rather the tools and techniques that futurists typically use to systematically approach these possibilities.

Futurism Tools and Techniques

In the toolbox of futurism, there are a variety of instruments that help us explore future scenarios. Think of these tools as different lenses, each providing a unique perspective on the future. Let’s categorise them to better understand how they are used:

1. Exploratory vs. normative tools: Exploratory tools help us understand what might happen, looking at trends and possibilities without judgement. Normative tools, on the other hand, guide us towards what should happen, often in terms of goals or desired outcomes.
2. Quantitative vs. qualitative tools: Quantitative tools deal with numbers and data, such as statistical forecasting. Qualitative tools are more about understanding narratives, opinions and ideas – the human side of the future.
3. Integrative tools: You could say that they try to combine the best of different approaches into one. STEEP or CLA are fairly common tools that try to be more comprehensive and give a better forecast.

Exploratory Tools

These tools help us to imagine the possible futures that lie ahead. It’s about broadening our understanding of what might happen, without necessarily saying what should happen.

1. Trend analysis: This is like being a detective looking for clues to the future. By looking at current trends – whether in technology, fashion, politics or even social behaviour – we can make educated guesses about where the world is going – but remember, “it’s a guess” and the past has always been a poor predictor of the future. But we can use it to make more educated guesses about global trends, for example, observing the rise of remote working can lead us to consider a future where office buildings become less common.
2. Environmental scanning: With environmental scanning, we’re casting a wide net to catch early signs of change. This means keeping an eye on a wide range of areas – from scientific breakthroughs to shifts in cultural values. For example, tracking advances in renewable energy can help us anticipate shifts in global energy policy, but changes in dating behaviour can also have an impact on industrial production.
3. Scenario planning: This is where we let our imaginations run wild, within reason. We create different plausible future scenarios, each based on a set of variables. Think of it as writing multiple future stories, each guided by different ‘what if’ questions. An example might be imagining different scenarios of climate change impacts, from mild to severe, and how societies might adapt to each.

By using these exploratory tools, we begin to see the future not as a single, inevitable outcome, but as a spectrum of possibilities, each shaped by different forces and choices. It’s an understanding that is crucial for anyone trying to navigate the uncertainties of the future.

Normative Tools

While exploratory tools help us map out what might happen, normative tools take us a step further. They focus on what ‘should’ happen, guiding us towards desired futures or outcomes. These tools are about setting goals and working out how to achieve them.

1. The Delphi method: Imagine that you get a bunch of experts in a room, but instead of having a debate, they engage in a structured conversation through surveys or questionnaires that give them a definitive goal to achieve. The aim is to reach a consensus on future developments in their field. For example, artificial intelligence experts might use the Delphi method to predict the future of AI ethics and regulation. They’d share their views, receive feedback and then refine their opinions in subsequent rounds.
2. Backcasting: This is like planning a journey backwards. You start by defining a desirable future, and then work backwards to identify the steps needed to get there. For example, if a city wants to become carbon neutral by 2050, backcasting will help it identify the policies and actions it needs to implement now to get there.
3. Visioning: Visioning involves creating a detailed and compelling vision of a desirable future. It’s like painting a picture of the future we want to live in. This can be particularly powerful in community planning, where residents can come together to envision a future for their neighbourhood or town, imagining everything from the development of green spaces to new forms of public transport.

Quantitative Tools

Quantitative tools in futurism are all about numbers and data, and for some people they are the first place to start. They provide a more measurable approach to understanding the future, but they can also be very false friends because these models are based on past data. Imagine thinking about cars by analysing only the use and speed of horses. So be careful with numbers derived from the past.

1. Forecasting and Extrapolation: It is about using existing data to predict future trends. It’s like looking in the rear-view mirror to see where the road ahead is going. For example, economists might use past and current data to forecast economic growth or unemployment rates.
2. Systems Dynamics Models: These are complex simulations that take into account various factors and how they interact. Think of it as a digital ecosystem, where changing one element can affect the whole system. An example is using a systems dynamics model to understand how a pandemic might spread under different conditions, like changes in public health policies or vaccine rollouts.
3. Simulation and Gaming: These tools turn future scenarios into simulations or games. In this way, people can have a better understanding of complex systems and see the consequences of their decisions in a simulated environment. For example, military strategists often use war games to plan and prepare for potential conflicts.

Qualitative Tools

Qualitative tools in futurism focus on understanding the human elements of the future – the values, beliefs and narratives that shape how we imagine what’s ahead. These tools capture perspectives and ideas rather than crunching numbers.

1. Futures workshops: These are collaborative sessions where people come together to share and develop ideas about the future. It’s like a brainstorming session, but with a focus on long-term visions. In a futures workshop, a community might come together to discuss and plan how they want their city to develop over the next few decades, considering everything from urban development to sustainability practices.
2. Cross-impact analysis: This method looks at how different future events might affect each other. It’s like a game of dominoes, but with complex social and economic trends. For example, analysing how advances in artificial intelligence could affect different industries, from healthcare to automotive.
3. Futures Wheel: This is a tool for mapping the potential consequences of a particular trend or event. You start with a central idea and then branch out to explore the direct and indirect effects. It’s a bit like drawing a family tree, but for ideas. An example might be exploring the consequences of the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles, from changes in urban design to the impact on driver-related jobs.

Integrative Tools

Integrative tools in futurism combine different approaches and help to create a more comprehensive understanding of possible futures. These tools are about connecting the dots between different factors and trends.

1. STEEP Analysis: To do this, we need to look at future trends from five perspectives: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. It’s like putting on a pair of glasses that give you a unique view of the future. For example, by analysing a new technology like blockchain through these glasses, you can see its potential impact on different areas.
2. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): CLA digs deep into the underlying layers of why we think about the future in certain ways. It moves from the surface (letters) to the systemic causes (systems), then to the worldview (worldview) and finally to the myth/metaphor (myth). This method can be used to understand the root causes of a societal problem, such as climate change denial, by examining everything from scientific data to cultural narratives.

Be aware of Biases – Ethics and Future Studies

Ethics in futures studies is a crucial area that underpins the responsibility and impact of predicting and shaping potential futures. It is often the case that personal biases, as well as vested interests, are reflected in predictions and probabilities. It is therefore important to understand that any tool is only as good as the person using it, so always check the assumptions and sources: Because a biased source leads to a biased hypothesis, leads to a biased selection, leads to a biased probability, leads to a biased prediction.

1. Techniques and tools are not always perfect: Every situation requires a different approach, and there are dozens of techniques to suit your needs. It’s like technology: it doesn’t make sense to use AI everywhere, only where it makes sense and where the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. The same goes for futurism and futures studies – choose wisely because you will get different results.
2. Responsibility in predictions: When futurists make predictions or create future scenarios, they have a significant impact. Their visions can influence decisions in business, government and society. It’s therefore important to approach these predictions with a sense of responsibility and an understanding of the potential impact of one’s work. This includes avoiding alarmist or overly optimistic predictions and striving for balanced, well-researched scenarios. Being neutral and seeing the complexity in the data is far more important than being an expert on the subject.
3. Ethical considerations: The process of future studies often involves making assumptions and choices about what is desirable or undesirable. These choices may reflect the values and biases of the futurists. It’s therefore important to engage with a range of perspectives and be transparent about the values and assumptions that underpin your work. In addition, it is crucial to consider the long-term consequences and ethical implications of future developments, especially in areas such as technology and environmental policy, and I have seen a lot of this scrutiny of interests in top policy bodies and workshops – be aware!

Future Trends in Futurism and Futures Studies

We have already discussed many different tools and techniques. These, of course, are subject to change, and futurism also needs to consider the future of futures studies (quite an irony). As we look forward to the evolution of futurism and futures studies, several trends stand out that will definitely change the way I and other futurists work in the long run:

1. Role of AI and Big Data: The increasing availability of big data and advances in artificial intelligence are transforming the way we predict and understand future trends. These technologies are enabling more sophisticated modelling of complex systems, from climate change to economic markets. Also well designed Government Technology Platforms (DGTP) will enable deeper insights into the implications of policies and measuring the impact on the economy or society.
2. Quantum Computers & Complex Simulations: The big problem with predicting the future is the sheer number of variables involved. From people, nature, the economy and financial markets to physical boundaries. There are so many variables, and especially with classical computers, such extensive simulations are limited. With the advent of quantum technologies, more comprehensive models can be created and better simulations are possible. This will also have a major impact on the way we think about complex systems and their interactions.
3. Interdisciplinary Approaches: The future is increasingly seen as a convergence of different fields. Understanding the future of healthcare, for example, may require combining insights from medicine, technology, sociology and even ethics. This interdisciplinary approach enriches our understanding of future possibilities, but it also makes it difficult for the average person to understand, as you would need to understand the input/output relationships in each system involved.
4. Participatory Futures: There’s a growing trend to involve a wider range of people in future studies. This participatory approach helps to democratise the process of envisioning the future, ensuring that it reflects a diversity of perspectives and values. While it is complex to understand the big picture and few have the ability to do so, it is good to take a multidisciplinary approach and put the right experts in the right positions.

Conclusion

There are many tools and techniques for futurism and futures studies. It is clear that I could not mention every tool that exists. From trend analysis to scenario planning, from ethical considerations to real-world implementations, futurists use a range of instruments to identify “possibilities”. These possibilities always offer some (valuable) insights for individuals, businesses and governments alike, but you should always understand how these predictions are made. But often there are blockers – because if you know about the possibilities of the future but don’t act, or even experience the innovator’s dilemma, then you just know what’s going to happen, but don’t do anything with that knowledge, and you’re left in the same place as before.

One thing I always have to say is: Futurism emphasises the importance of approaching the future with an open mind, a sense of responsibility and a commitment to inclusion and ethical considerations. In our increasingly complex and interconnected world, the ability to think critically and creatively about the future is more important than ever. I would also recommend practising techniques such as First Principles Thinking.

Benjamin Talin

Benjamin Talin, a serial entrepreneur since the age of 13, is the founder and CEO of MoreThanDigital, a global initiative providing access to topics of the future. As an influential keynote speaker, he shares insights on innovation, leadership, and entrepreneurship, and has advised governments, EU commissions, and ministries on education, innovation, economic development, and digitalization. With over 400 publications, 200 international keynotes, and numerous awards, Benjamin is dedicated to changing the status quo through technology and innovation. #bethechange Stay tuned for MoreThanDigital Insights - Coming soon!